Sun, 03 Dec 2023

Jaguars vs. Titans: Week 11 Game Preview

19 Nov 2023, 04:03 GMT+10

Nick Hennion

Tennessee lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10, while the Jaguars received a throttling from the San Francisco 49ers.

Now, the sides will meet for their first head-to-head meeting of the season. Last year, the Titans failed to win either meeting against the Jaguars.

At the BetMGM online sportsbook, the Jaguars are a 6.5-point favorite for this game. Bettors looking to back the Titans can take the points at -110 or the moneyline at +240.

As for the over/under, oddsmakers have set the total at 40 points, a number largely driven by both sides' outstanding defenses.

Ahead of Sunday's game, here's a breakdown of the contest and my best bet.

Can Vrabel Overcome a Historically Difficult Spot?

History says whenever Mike Vrabel is an underdog, bettors are wise to take the points and the moneyline.

Vrabel is 27-19-1 (59%) against the spread as an underdog, including 12-6 ATS at +4.5 or higher.

Within the former sample, Vrabel is 23-24 straight up. Over that span, bettors backing Vrabel would see a 37% return on investment.

In this spot, bettors should be surprised if Vrabel bags a straight-up win. Since 2013-14, teams playing two straight road games are 101-237-2 straight up (29.9%) in the second game.

They also struggle against the spread. Over that span, teams are 163-167-10 (49.4%) against the spread.

Even if oddsmakers list those teams at +4.5 or higher, such teams struggle to cover.

Over that timeframe, dogs at +4.5 or higher are 94-101-9 ATS.

Jaguars vs. Titans Betting Prediction

By applying all this information, bettors can potentially get creative with their wager.

Using BetMGM's Same Game Parlay feature, a bettor combining the Jaguars moneyline and the Titans +6.5 generates a price of +320.

Even if you buy the Titans up to +7.5 - seven is a key number in NFL betting - it's still +230.

Given the latter data set, history suggests the Jaguars have a 70% chance of winning this game independent of each team's rating this season.

Yet, Vrabel could defy the latter data given his outstanding record as an underdog.

At +230, the implied probability of this bet winning is 30%.

However, given the two percentages of these correlative systems, I'd wager there's a better chance of this bet hitting than 30%.

As a result, a same game parlay for this game could prove profitable for bettors.

Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for updated Week 11 NFL odds.

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